See copyright notice at the bottom of this page.
List of All Posters
Cubs create job to analyze numbers (December 4, 2003)
Discussion ThreadPosted 12:42 p.m.,
December 4, 2003
(#1) -
The Other Kurt
Isn't this more of a clutch hit, rather than a primate study?
Anyway, some funny stuff. Sounds like an internal hire, er, change of title at least. Does anyone know this guy from the Sabermetric community, or is he just some Cubs staffer?
It sounds like Hendry wants to know who the stat-heads "over-value" rather than to base any vlaue of his own on the "computer printout of numbers". That is, this probably won't change their moves much, but might reduce the chance of them getting scalped by one of the brain-trusts.
Theo (or Billy, or JP, etc.): I'll give you this 18 year old fireballing pitcher for that crappy out of shape over-aged infielder over there. What's his name again?
Hendry: Alright! Um, wait, just a sec. *hangs up*calls Wssaerstrom*
Hendry: Theo wants some crap from our minor leagues, ah (sound of pages rustleing), Jonny Nobidy is his name. What's it worth to him?
Wosserstrom: Nobidy, hmmmmmm. (sounds of beeps, clicks and whirring as a computer spits out pages and pages of meaningless numbers). Computer says Kim is roughly equal value.
Hendry: Kim, he's a closer!
Wasserston: That's what the computer says.
Hendry: Um, OK, I'll try it. *Hangs up*calls Theo back*
Hendry: Um, I think, um, that I'll do it for, um, maybe, if you think, I dunno, for Kim?
Theo: Kim, are f!@#$ nuts! I do have this great AAA closer that I can throw on top of the amazing highschool kid though.
Hendry: (giddy as a school boy) Alright! Let's do it!
:-)
Sports-Wired.Com - Minor League Stats (December 11, 2003)
Posted 5:09 p.m.,
December 11, 2003
(#1) -
The Other Kurt
One of my biggest problems is lack of an easy source of data for minor leagues.
I like this page from BP: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/current/eqamin.html
But I can't find anything like it for pitchers. I don't want much. IP, BB, K, HR, ERA, along with league averages would do me fine. Any one know anything like this?
(I'll take any suggestions, but for my uses text or spreadsheet would be best, as I don't have access to any databases.)
Banner Years and Reverse Banner Years for a Player's BB rate (December 14, 2003)
Posted 1:32 p.m.,
December 14, 2003
(#2) -
The Other Kurt
Nice MGL!
So if we look at Jose Cruz, who had a banner BB year last year, he goes in the "old guys" bunch, as next year is his age 30 season. So using a 4/3/2 weighting, this study "predicts" 60 BB next year. Did I do that right?
Is there a reason you used a counting stat instead of a rate stat as a predictor?
Banner Years and Reverse Banner Years for a Player's BB rate (December 14, 2003)
Posted 1:34 p.m.,
December 14, 2003
(#3) -
The Other Kurt
Don't reply! Just re-read the study and realized the answers to my qustions are "no" and "what are you talking about", respctively. Sorry.
Park Factors (March 18, 2004)
Posted 7:49 p.m.,
March 21, 2004
(#17) -
The Other Kurt
Schindleria asks: Is the solution to use only visitors' stats to calculate park factors?
Maybe one of the SABR-gods lurking around this thread can answer better, but I'll take my stab. Basically, no that's not the answer. Were you to do that two things would reduce the benefit you recieved by using a more divers batting group. (1) The smaller sample size. While you just reduced the concentration of ABs among certain hitters, you just halved your samnple size. And perhaps more imprtantly (2) by increasing the diversity of the batting group, you just reduced the diversity of the pitching and defence group. Were you to use only visitors stats, the vast majority would be against the same 5 pitchers and the exact same defence. So while the numbers would be less affected by home team hitters, it would be greatly MORE affected by home team pitching and defence.
I am not very sophisticated at how these biases weigh against each other, but my guess is the increased bias on pitching and defence would balance the reduction in bias on hitting, and the smaller sample size would make this method not woth using.
Anyone who's done the work want to chime in?